Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GOMBE-22 in Madagascar from 07 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC to 10 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22

in Madagascar

10 Mar 2022 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000182-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	100 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.9 m (11 Mar 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Mar 2022 18:00 - 11 Mar 2022 06:00 in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.9 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 850000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	111	1000 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	130	4.9 million	230 thousand	Mozambique
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	139	8.1 million	540 thousand	Mozambique
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	130	5.3 million	1.3 million	Mozambique
5	09 Mar 2022 18:00	185	6.2 million	2.1 million	Mozambique
6	10 Mar 2022 00:00	185	5.9 million	440 thousand	Mozambique
7	10 Mar 2022 06:00	167	8 million	500 thousand	Mozambique
8	10 Mar 2022 12:00	185	7 million	600 thousand	Mozambique
9	10 Mar 2022 18:00	148	6.4 million	850 thousand	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-15.6, 51.3
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.4, 49.4	Madagascar
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	400000 people	-15.1, 47.6	Madagascar
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.8, 46
5	09 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 44.3
6	10 Mar 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.3, 43.6
7	10 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.1 million people	-15.6, 42.8
8	10 Mar 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	100000 people	1.5 million people	-15.9, 42.1
9	10 Mar 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	300000 people	4.3 million people	-15.9, 41.4
9	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	148	850000 people	4.7 million people	-15.8, 39.9	Mozambique
9	11 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.8 million people	-15.6, 38.7	Mozambique
9	12 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.5 million people	-15.6, 37.8	Mozambique
9	12 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-16, 37.2	Mozambique
9	13 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	110000 people	-17.3, 37.5	Mozambique
9	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-18.8, 38.6
9	15 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-20.1, 39.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nampula	Mozambique
Zambezia	Mozambique

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.9m in Quinga, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2022 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (99 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 10 Mar 2022 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.9
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.9
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.8
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Namacoto	Mozambique	0.5
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.4
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.4
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.4
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.4
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.4
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.4
	11 Mar 2022 01:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.4
	11 Mar 2022 00:00	Barroa	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Natiquinde	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 02:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Larde	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Coropoa	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Mar 2022 23:00	Coluvelane	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Mar 2022 21:00	Terrene	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.2
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.2
	13 Mar 2022 21:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.2
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Mar 2022 23:00	Ali	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 09:00	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Mar 2022 22:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Mar 2022 23:00	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Pebane	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Mar 2022 22:00	Lunga	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Mar 2022 22:00	Injaca	Mozambique	0.1
	13 Mar 2022 23:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.1
	14 Mar 2022 18:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.